This weekend is looking to be one of the most interesting weekends of the year as Venom and A Star is Born go head to head in the first weekend of October.
Venom, Sony’s attempt to kickstart a Marvel Universe based around Spider-Man, without actually including Spider-Man, is expected to win the weekend. The $100 million, PG-13 movie is the first major action movie since The Predator bombed, and The Meg debuted back in August to moderate success. Interest seems to be high for the Tom Hardy movie, as trailer views online have been extremely high. Whether that can translate into a strong opening weekend is another story. A lot of the buzz has been negative, and that’s before reviews came out. The film currently has a 30% score on Rotten Tomatoes, with many critics calling it one of the worst things an action movie can be: boring. Despite this, Venom does have a chance to break the October opening weekend, currently held by 2013’s Gravity, with $55.7 million, followed closely by 2015’s The Martian, with $54.3 million. The buzz is that audiences will likely reject the film and it will have poor word of mouth. That is the biggest factor for it this weekend. It may have a strong opening day from fans, but if it has toxic word of mouth, it may collapse on Saturday and Sunday, like what happened to Batman v. Superman in 2016. Still, the worst possible result is likely around a $45 million weekend. The high end would be around $70 million if the strong interest online translates to people buying tickets. This is a large range, but this movie has been a wildcard since its announcement, largely because it is a Marvel movie that is not part of the MCU. Overall, a weekend around $60 million seems reasonable.
The weekend’s other new wide release is the latest remake of A Star is Born, this time with Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. For the past few months, this film has been shaping up to be one of the biggest hits of the fall. Reviews have been incredibly strong since it premiered at the Venice Film Festival on August 31. It boasts a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, and is considered an Oscar frontrunner. Lady Gaga, in particular, has been singled out for her performance. Additionally, first time director and star Bradley Cooper as well as Sam Elliott have been praised. Musicals have been going through a bit of a renaissance lately, as La La Land and The Greatest Showman had very strong legs bolstered by strong word of mouth and stellar soundtracks. While it will likely hold well throughout the rest of its run and maybe even the year, A Star is Born is also a bit of a wildcard for this weekend. Among recent musicals, 2014’s Into the Woods opened to $31 million, while this year’s Mama Mia! Here We Go Again opened to $34 million. $30 million feels like the floor for A Star is Born. On the high end, Pitch Perfect 2 opened to $69 million in 2015 following the breakout success of its predecessor.
While that seems pretty high, it is within the realm of possibilities if A Star is Born begins to turn into a bit of a cultural phenomenon. Presales have been incredibly strong, and despite its R rating, it will appeal to a wide audience. Bradley Cooper is huge with adult audiences, and American Sniper was a surprise blockbuster when it grossed $89 million in its first weekend of wide release in January 2015. He may be one of the only actors that could make older men excited to see a musical in theaters. Lady Gaga is an unproven draw at the box office, but she is one of the biggest singers in the world, and has been for over a decade at this point. She has a strong influence on younger audiences and women. Plus, her performance has been putting A Star is Born into must-see territory. Right now, I am predicting a $55 million weekend, which is on the high end of projections, but I see this breaking out, and there is a chance that it could go even higher than this. Of course, anything over even $30 million will be a success.
There is a small chance that A Star is Born manages to win the weekend, which would be a bad hit for Sony and their new franchise. If Venom under-performs and A Star is Born comes in over projections, they could switch positions. Regardless of this weekend, A Star is Born is all but guaranteed to have a stronger domestic total when all is said in done, as it should hold well while Venom may fall hard in coming weeks.
Predictions
Venom– $60 million
A Star is Born– $55 million
Smallfoot– $14.5 million
Night School– $12.6 million
The House with a Clock in Its Walls- $6.1 million
A Simple Favor– $4.4 million
The Nun $2.8 million
Crazy Rich Asians– $2.8 million
Hell Fest– $2.4 million
The Predator– $1.8 million
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