This October has been abnormally strong with lots of big movies that appeal to nearly everyone. We’ve had a superhero blockbuster (Venom), prestige adult dramas (First Man, A Star is Born), R Rated action (Bad Times at the El Royal), a family Halloween adventure (Goosebumps 2) and many holdovers from late September still going strong. In fact, this October is on pace to be the largets October ever, especially with Halloween looking to be another blockbuster.
40 years after the original 1978 film comes Halloween, from director David Gordon Green. Effectively serving as both a sequel to just the original (they wisely have decided to ignore all of the other sequels) and a remake to appeal to new fans, Halloween has done an excellent job making audiences forget about the long line of cash grab sequels in the famous franchise, the last of which came out in 2007. Effective trailers, enthusiastic reviews (79% on Rotten Tomatoes, 68 on Metacritic) and a lack of horror offerings (The Nun came out on September 7), Halloween is ready for a massive weekend.
The highest ever R Rated Horror opening is last year’s IT, which grossed an jaw dropping $123.4 million last September. Halloween has no chance at coming close to that number, but second place (currently The Nun‘s $53.8 million) is in the bag. Universal is forecasting a conservative $50 million, but I am expecting $70 million.
A Star is Born will have another strong hold this weekend, as it has been playing very well on weekdays. Halloween shouldn’t take away too much of its audience. It will likely drop around 35% for $18.2 million this weekend, enough to put it ahead of Venom for the first weekend (despite beating it on several weekdays).
Speaking of, Venom will take a hit from Halloween, but it has outperformed every forecast so far. It should gross another $16.5 million this weekend, pushing it to over $165 million so far.
After a nail-biter last weekend, Goosebumps 2 and First Man will be neck and neck once again. As we are approaching Halloween, I expect Goosebumps 2 to take an ever so slight advantage for the weekend, and drop only 40% for a $9.5 million second weekend.
First Man will come in right behind. After a disappointing opening, there doesn’t seem to be much hope in the film being saved by strong legs. Audience reception is much worse than the critical reception, and the B+ CinemaScore is concerning. Six years ago, Argo only opened marginally higher ($19.4 million vs $16.0 million on the same weekend) and managed to gross $136.0 million. First Man has no hope of a similar run, especially since Argo was a buzzier crowdpleaser with an A+ CinemaScore. First Man should finish the weekend with $9.35 million and a fifth place finish.
After a strong limited release, The Hate U Give expands to 2,303 locations. Buzz has been steadily increasing for the drama based on Angie Thomas’s popular novel. Expect a $8.2 million opening, with an outside chance at overperforming and passing First Man and/or Goosebumps 2.
Smallfoot and Night School enter their fourth weeks and should make $6.8 million and $5.1 million, respectively.
After a soft opening, Bad Times at the El Royal will lose about half its audience for $3.6 million. And finally, The Old Man and the Gun, Robert Redford’s final(?) movie expands into 802 theaters, having already grossed over $2 million from its limited release. It should take tenth place with around $1.5 million.
Predictions
Halloween– $71.0 million
A Star is Born– $18.2 million
Venom– $16.5 million
Goosebumps 2– $9.5 million
First Man– $9.35 million
The Hate U Give– $8.2 million
Smallfoot– $6.8 million
Night School– $5.1 million
Bad Times at the El Royale– $3.6 million
The Old Man and the Gun- $1.5 million
Film Central 