After its record breaking debut last weekend, Universal’s horror film “Halloween” will remain atop the box office in the final weekend before the actual Halloween holiday, while Gerard Butler’s submarine action movie “Hunter Killer” prepares for a modest debut.
Last weekend, Halloween debuted with $76.2 million. Typically, horror films, and slashers in particular, have terrible legs and plummet in their second weekend. However, with such a massive opening, Halloween may not play like a typical slasher. It has strong reviews and word of mouth from audiences, and the approaching Halloween holiday should attract people looking for thrills. A drop of around 60% sounds about right, for a $32.5 million second weekend.
A Star is Born will remain in second place for the fourth straight weekend. It has dropped 33.7% and 33.0% the past two weekends, and another 33% drop will give it $12.7 million for the weekend as it approaches $150 million.
Venom will continue its surprisingly strong run with another $11.5 million as it continues towards $200 million. It has the chance to hold better if it becomes a tamer “scary movie” option for those that don’t want to watch the R-Rated Halloween.
The only one of the three new wide releases looking to make any type of impact is the R-Rated action/thriller Hunter Killer, starring Gerard Butler and Gary Oldman. The film, debuting in 2,728 theaters, does not seem to have much, if any, buzz surrounding it. With negative reviews (38% on Rotten Tomatoes) and strong competition, not to mention its R-Rating will hold back most teenagers that may be interested, the film seems to be DOA. It should hit around $8.1 million for the weekend, and make its way to a Walmart bargain bin in record time.
Goosebumps 2 should take advantage of the upcoming holiday, and lack of family competition, for another strong hold. It should make around $6.2 million for the weekend.
After a strong expansion and an A+ CinemaScore, The Hate U Give looks to have the best hold in the top 10, and should bring in $5.3 million.
First Man will continue its disappointing run and bring in just $4.3 million in its thrid weekend. Smallfoot will be right on its tail with $4.0 million in its fifth weekend.
Mid90s, the coming of age tale that also marks Jonah Hill’s directorial debut, expands to 1,206 theaters after playing well in four theaters last weekend. Hill has been working hard to promote his well-reviewed film, which will likely be able to sneak into the top 10. Back in August, Eighth Grade, also from A24, expanded to 1084 where it took $2.8 million for a per theater average of $2,630. Mid90s does not have the same level of acclaim as Eighth Grade, but it does have Jonah Hill promoting it. A similar per theater average of $2,600 would give the movie $3.1 million and ninth place. As for how far it can go in its entire run, A24 seems to have trouble with expanding its films, but it could reach $10 million.
Finally, holdover Night School and the other two semi-wide releases, spy spoof Johnny English Strikes Again (544 theaters) and faith-based Indivisible (830 theaters) will be fighting for the tenth spot, all looking to land in the $2.2-2.5 million range. The edge likely goes to PureFlix’s Indivisible, as the prove time and time again that they have a very reliable audience that will arrive for anything they put out, with most of their films debuting around $2.5 million.
Predictions
Halloween– $32.5
A Star is Born– $12.7 million
Venom– $11.5 million
Hunter Killer- $8.1 million
Goosebummps 2– $6.2 million
The Hate U Give– $5.3 million
First Man– $4.3 million
Smallfoot– $4.0 million
Mid90s– $3.1 million
Indivisible– $2.5 million
Night School– $2.4 million
Johnny English Strikes Again– $2.3 million
Film Central 