This weekend we have three new wide releases. Leading the pack will be Illumination’s The Grinch, which hopes to capitalize on the lack of animated films over the past several months, and continue the winning streak for the studio behind Despicable Me and Sing. Also debuting are two R-Rated action movies, Overlord and The Girl in the Spider’s Web: A New Dragon Tattoo Story (yes, that is the official title), which are both looking at modest openings. Meanwhile, last week’s champion, Bohemian Rhapsody, will have a strong hold.
The last animated film to be released is September’s Smallfoot, which has performed well with $78 million so far. Before that, we have to go all the way back to July’s Teen Titans Go to the Movies and Hotel Transylvania 3. So we are in a bit of an empty period for animated films, which should help The Grinch, not to mention the fact that Illumination’s films seem to be critic proof and we are entering the Christmas season. The most obvious comparison is The Lorax, another Seuss adaptation from Illumination which overperformed en route to a $70.2 million debut in 2012. Last year, Despicable Me 3 opened with $72.4 million. The Grinch is opening in a massive 4,141 theaters, and has decent, if unenthusiastic, reviews (62%) which is typical for the company. On the low end, the film should clear $60 million without any issue, but this movie doesn’t seem to have the obvious hook that Sing or Secret Life of Pets had, or a killer trailer, so it shouldn’t be able to go over $80 million, so I’m predicting a $68 million debut, and it should hold well throughout the holidays.
After a great opening last weekend, Bohemian Rhapsody will fall to second place. Strong word of mouth from audiences should keep its drop under 40%, with a second weekend of $30.5 million.
Our other two wide releases, Overlord and Girl (I am not writing out the entire title every time) both are expected for debuts in the $8-$15 million range. Its unclear how much overlap there will be, as both are R-Rated thrillers, although Overlord is more action-oriented (with Nazi zombies) and Girl is more of a mystery.
Overlord comes from producer JJ Abrams, and has stong reviews, but it hasn’t generated a ton of buzz from general audiences. It’s also an original IP, not connected to any franchise (although it was once rumored to be part of the Cloverfield franchise, although that no longer appears to be the case), and no big stars in the cast. There’s a pretty wide range for this one, but I expect a debut around $12 million.
The existence of The Girl in the Spider’s Web is confusing. Here’s the backstory- Stieg Larsson’s Swedish trilogy, beginning with The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo, became a worldwide phenomenon around 2009, and was adapted into a popular and acclaimed Swedish trilogy. America obviously decided to remake it in English, giving us David Fincher’s version of the first novel in 2011, starring Rooney Mara (in an Oscar nominated performance) and Daniel Craig. The film own an Oscar and did modest business, although Sony’s decision to release such a brutally violent film on Christmas (with the tagline “The feel bad movie of Christmas”) is still baffling. Still, Sony was hesitant to greenlight sequels. Now, seven years later, they are making a new installment, except this time, they are skipping to the fourth book, which was not even written by the original author, and they are bringing in a new cast (with The Crown‘s Claire Foy taking over) and director (Don’t Breath‘s Fede Alvarez). With that absurd backstory out of the way, general audiences seem to be unsurprisingly confused by this film, although Sony has done a decent job preventing people from realizing it is skipping two novels, and presenting it as a stand alone. Regardless, the franchise clearly peaked years ago, and it is hard to get people too excited about this new version where most fans are still annoyed that Fincher’s trilogy never got to continue. So how will this do? Well, not too well. Reviews are mixed, and it seems the film misses what made the original franchise so popular. The remake/reboot/sequel/spinoff/whatever is looking at a weekend of around $10 million.
Overlord comes from producer JJ Abrams, and has stong reviews, but it hasn’t generated a ton of buzz from general audiences. It’s also an original IP, not connected to any franchise (although it was once rumored to be part of the Cloverfield franchise, although that no longer appears to be the case), and no big stars in the cast. There’s a pretty wide range for this one, but I expect a debut around $12 million.
Rounding out the top five will be The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, which had a horrible debut last week and is looking at $9.3 million in its sophomore frame.
Predictions
The Grinch– $68.0 million
Bohemian Rhapsody– $30.5 million
Overlord– $11.8 million
The Girl in the Spider’s Web: A New Dragon Tattoo Story– $10.0 million
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms– $9.3 million
A Star is Born– $7.1 million
Nobody’s Fool– $6.9 million
Venom– $5.5 million
Halloween– $5.2 million
Smallfoot– $3.1 million
Beautiful Boy– $2.2 million
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