It’s Thanksgiving, which only means one thing- big box office results. Well, also people eating turkey and pies, but that’s not as important. We’re here to talk about the box office. Wide releases are opening on Wednesday to take advantage of the holiday, making this a “five day weekend.” Our new openers are Wreck it Ralph sequel Ralph Breaks the Internet (why they didn’t title it Ralph Wrecks the Internet still puzzles me, although the title is better than the previous title of Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-it Ralph 2), Creed II, the sequel to 2015’s Oscar-nominated Rocky spinoff, and Robin Hood, the latest attempt to get people to care about Robin Hood. Also, Oscar hopeful Green Book is expanding to 1063 theaters.
Ralph should easily take the top spot, following in the footsteps of fellow Disney releases Moana in 2016 and Coco in 2017, which had five day grosses of $82m and $72m, respectively. Ralph should fall right in that range. It has strong reviews, well-received trailers, and it benefits from being a follow up to one of Disney Animation’s first modern animated classics (considering the starting point to be Tangled in 2010). While the six year gap between releases is a bit long, Ralph certainly found an audience on home release after a good-not-great $189m domestic total. In fact, the gap could be a benefit, as most of today’s teens were in middle school when the original came out and likely have found memories of it. Additionally, marketing has focused on a character meeting up with all of the Disney princesses, which is a huge selling point for many. At a minimum, Ralph should be able to match Coco‘s $72 five day total, and maybe even Moana‘s. (The record of $93.5m, held by Frozen, is likely out of reach).
The first Creed opened over the same holiday weekend in 2015 with $42 million, en route to a strong $109.7m total and an Oscar nomination for Sylvester Stallone. It’s sequel also has been reviewed well, though not quite as well as the first, likely due to the fact that the first’s director, Ryan Coogler, was unable to return due to a commit on a little film called Black Panther. Creed, like Ralph, has grown a decent following since its theatrical release. The question is whether or not those people will turn out to see the sequel in theaters. One reason why they may is Michael B. Jordan, who has seen his star rise substantially in recent years, largely due to his acclaimed, and already iconic performance as Black Panther antagonist Erik Killmonger. Creed II will likely open slightly above its predecessor, in the $45-$55m range.
Last weekend’s winner, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, will fall to third in its sophomore frame. It’s predecessor had a strong hold for the holiday, but Grindelwald won’t be having the same success. For the five day weekend, the sequel should make anywhere from $38-$45m.
The Grinch is facing a serious test with Ralph stealing away audiences, and benefiting from having positive reviews. Still, The Grinch has the benefit of its holiday theme, which should help mitigate the damage, with around $30m for the five day.
Fifth will go to Bohemian Rhapsody, which will be the clear option for adult audiences not interested in cartoons, wizards, or boxing. It will likely have the best hold in the top 10, and could make $15m for the five day, just a hair below last weekend’s $16m for the three day.
Our other new opener is Robin Hood from Lionsgate. The latest version, this time starring Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx, has been torn apart by the critics, which should not come to a surprise to anyone who has seen the horrid trailer. The film has just a 13% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m not sure anyone is interested in yet another retelling of this story, and I personally don’t think I ever want to see another Robin Hood movie after the terrible 2010 version with Russel Crowe. This version should make around $12-15m over the holiday, a rough start for the action film. Don’t expect the planned sequel to be announced.
Elsewhere, Instant Family should take advantage of its themes of family for the holiday and hold well after a soft opening weekend, and we will see if word of mouth can save Widows after a weak debut. Finally, Green Book expands to 1063 theaters and will make anywhere from $5-8m.
Predictions (Five day forecast)
Ralph Breaks the Internet- $75.5 million
Creed II– $51.1 million
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald– $32.5 million
The Grinch– $31 million
Bohemian Rhapsody– $15.0 million
Robin Hood– $13.3 million
Instant Family– $12.7 million
Widows– $9.5 million
Green Book– $5.5 million
A Star is Born– $3.3 million
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