Oscars Update: NBR and AFI Kick off the Season

Oscars 2019 7 Minutes

Two of the most influential, and earliest, organizations have announced their top 10 films of 2018, essentially kicking off “Oscar Season.” The National Board of Review and American Film Institute are not perfecting barometers for the Oscar’s Best Picture lineup, but they typically match between 5-7 of the eventual nominees, and can be a good barometer of what films are “in the conversation”. They can also raise the profiles of smaller releases. These awards do tend to run a bit more “populist” than the Oscars, as they are more open to embracing animated films and superhero films.

Both NBR and AFI have impressive track records for predicting the eventual Oscar winner. Since the Oscars expanded to include more than five nominees beginning in 2009, the only Oscar Best Picture to miss NBR is last year’s The Shape of Water. As for AFI, they have never missed. As they only include American films, they gave special awards to The King’s Speech in 2010 and The Artist in 2011, both of which won Best Picture. This year, the extended a special citation to Roma, which bodes very well for its chances. Let’s take a look at the nominees.

National Board of Review

Winner: Green Book

Top 10
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born

Quick Takeaways:

  • The NBR winner hasn’t won Best Picture since the Oscars expanded, last matching in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, which is bad news for Green Book.
  • The only NBR winner not to make the Oscar lineup this decade is 2014’s A Most Violent Year
  • NBR had been making some bold pics earlier this decade, with films like Mad Max and Her, but this is a fairly uninspired choice, much like last year’s The Post, which looked like a sure contender on paper, but ended up being pretty underwhelming, barely scrapping two Oscar nominations.
  • Don’t look too much into Buster Scruggs sneaking in. NBR has nominated every Coen Bros film since 2007.
  • The Favourite was ineligible
  • Crazy Rich Asians won Best Ensemble, and may get into SAG ensemble

American Film Institute

BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Special Citation: Roma

Quick Takeaways

  • The Favourite should not have been eligible as it is a British film, but it looks like they loved it enough to bend the rules (allegedly because it has an American co-lead)
  • Wonder Woman got in last year, so don’t get too excited about Black Panther (yet). Missing here would have been a red flag, but its Oscar chances are looking stronger and stronger
  • Early reactions to Mary Poppins Returns have been very, very strong, and it could make a run for Best Picture, as well as a slew of craft categories. But can Mary and Black Panther both get in? Will Disney push for them both, or try to focus on just one? We’ll have to wait and see how Poppins is received as more people see it

 

Appearing on Both Lists:

Black Panther
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star is Born

Appearing on Only One

Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Favourite

roma_06495_006r-1

So there was quite a bit of overlap, and nothing too groundbreaking on either list. First Reformed is the biggest success of these, as the small indie has been appearing everywhere possible, especially after doing well at the Gothams and Indie Spirit Awards. It now looks pretty secure for a Best Picture nomination, and Ethan Hawke could be a threat to win Best Actor. Writer/Director Paul Schrader is looking at his first nomination, which is incredible considering he wrote both Taxi Driver and Raging Bull. He is fairly revered, so he may even be a surprise Best Director nominee.

Eighth Grade also continues to build up steam. While not many critic’s awards have been announced, the small indie is appearing on many lists that have been unveiled, even winning Best Film from the Detroit Film Critics. Elsie Fisher has won several breakthrough awards, and Josh Hamilton has had a few surprise appearances. He may end up being the biggest surprise if he breaks into the weak Supporting Actor field. While getting into Best Picture is still going to be a challenge, Eighth Grade is building momentum and is looking good for, at a minimum, a screenplay nomination.

quiet-place-1

A Quiet Place is something of a surprise, making it onto both lists. While it is a threat for the sound categories, and perhaps a few other technical categories, it will be tough for it to get any major nominations. Horror is often overlooked by the Academy, not to mention it will likely split the “genre fan” vote with the similarly well liked Hereditary. There are also enough popular films in the mix this year (A Star is Born, Black Panther, Mary Poppins) that it will likely get squeezed out. But, it is still early, and it is doing much better than expected.

Now for the snubs. The two biggest are First Man and Widows. Just a few months ago, First Man was looking like a frontrunner, but at this point, it will be lucky to sneak into Best Picture. Missing both of these is really bad for the movie, especially since the story of an American Hero should be right up the American Film Institute’s alley. While it has its fans, it seems nobody is as passionate about it as they were Chazelle’s two prior films, Whiplash and La La Land.

Steve McQueen’s Widows seems to have fallen in a dead zone where it is too mainstream for people to realize how good it is, and too “prestige” for mainstream audiences expecting a typical action film. The heist thriller has strong reviews, but it will need to start showing up on Top 10 lists if it wants to even have a chance. Missing AFI is unfortunate for the film, as it is exactly the type of movie AFI usually loves. This may end up without a single Oscar nomination, which would be a shame. Viola Davis may fall out of the actress race as well with the film going under the radar. It still has a chance to get a SAG Ensemble nomination for its massive cast, but things do not look promising.

vice-still-facebookjumbo

Adam McKay’s The Big Short follow up, Vice may have been too late to make an impact among both of these groups. While Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Sam Rockwell, and Steve Carell have all received raves, the film is still under embargo. Early word is that the film will be very divisive, and it is looking to be a box office failure (it has an absurd $60 million budget) due to its highly political and depressing content. But don’t count it out just yet- The Big Short came out of nowhere in 2015 and nearly took Best Picture.

For a minute, it looked like Debra Granik’s Leave No Trace could be the surprise contender, but it seems that those honors have gone to First Reformed and Eighth Grade instead. Best case scenario at this point is a screenplay nomination for the little-seen indie, unless the critics rally behind it.

While they were on the bubble before, it seems like we can rule out Boy Erased, and Beautiful Boy from the Best Picture race. Neither showed up on either list, and neither have outstanding reviews. They still are possible contenders in acting categories, at least. Likewise, Mary, Queen of Scots has finally been screened, and reactions are mixed. Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie are being praised, but they will need to start gaining momentum soon to be in the race. Now, the only two major films yet to debut are The Mule and Welcome to Marwen.

On Friday, the Golden Globe nominees are to be announced, the first of the “Shown on TV” awards. The Globes are not great predictors either, but they can still shake up the race and bring attention to certain releases. They tend to gravitate towards the most famous people possible, so we will have to see what impact they have on the acting races in particular. But for now, here are my current Oscar rankings.

the-favourite

Best Picture

  1. The Favourite
  2. Roma
  3. A Star is Born
  4. If Beale Street Could Talk
  5. First Reformed
  6. Green Book
  7. BlacKkKlansman
  8. Black Panther
  9. Eighth Grade
  10. Vice
  11. Mary Poppins Returns
  12. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  13. First Man
  14. Widows
  15. A Quiet Place
  16. Leave No Trace
  17. Crazy Rich Asians
  18. Hereditary
  19. Paddington 2
  20. Boy Erased
  21. Vox Lux
  22. The Old Man and The Gun

Director

  1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
  2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
  3. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
  4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
  5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
  6. Paul Schrader, First Reformed
  7. Adam McKay, Vice
  8. Damien Chazelle, First Man
  9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
  10. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
  11. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  12. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
  13. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
  14. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
  15. Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
  16. Steve McQueen, Widows

Actress

  1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
  2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
  3. Glenn Close, The Wife
  4. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
  5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
  6. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  7. Toni Collete, Hereditary
  8. Viola Davis, Widows
  9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
  10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Actor

  1. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
  2. Christian Bale, Vice
  3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
  4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
  5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
  6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
  7. Ryan Gosling, First Man
  8. Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
  9. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
  10. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Supporting Actress

  1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
  2. Amy Adams, Vice
  3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
  4. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
  5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
  6. Marina de Tavira, Roma
  7. Claire Foy, First Man
  8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
  9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux
  10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Supporting Actor (this category still feels wide open, anyone could gain momentum and take off, and none of the top five are secure)

  1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
  2. Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
  4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
  5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
  6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
  7. Sam Rockwell, Vice
  8. Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade
  9. Hugh Grant, Paddington 2
  10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
  11. Russel Crowe, Boy Erased
  12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite

Original Screenplay (strong top 7, but not much beyond that)

  1. The Favourite
  2. First Reformed
  3. Roma
  4. Eighth Grade
  5. Vice
  6. Green Book
  7. Sorry to Bother You
  8. A Quiet Place
  9. Hereditary
  10. Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Adapted Screenplay (very competitive with a deep lineup)

  1. If Beale Street Could Talk
  2. BlacKkKlansman
  3. A Star is Born
  4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  5. Widows
  6. First Man
  7. Leave No Trace
  8. The Death of Stalin
  9. Black Panther
  10. Boy Erased
  11. Annihilation
  12. Mary Poppins Returns
  13. Wildlife
  14. The Hate U Give
  15. Crazy Rich Asians

Documentary

  1. Won’t You Be My Neighbour?
  2. Three Identical Strangers
  3. Free Solo
  4. RBG
  5. Minding the Gap

Animated Feature

  1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
  2. Incredibles 2
  3. Isle of Dogs
  4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
  5. Mirai
  6. Early Man
  7. The Grinch
  8. Ruben Brandt, Collector
  9. Smallfoot
  10. Tito and the Birds
Unknown's avatar

Published by filmcentral5

Published

Leave a comment