Thursday morning, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced the nominees for this year’s Golden Globe awards. As always, the Globes had some surprises and head scratchers in their list of nominations, snubbing some big favorites while including some lesser-known films and performances and putting them on the radar. Remember, the Globes are not perfect precursors for the Oscars and occasionally nominate films ranging from questionable (Florence Foster Jenkins) to embarrassing (The Tourist and Alice in Wonderland in 2010). Luckily, nothing this year was downright horrible, although there was still a substantial amount of category fraud.
First, let’s look at the nominees:
Best Picture (Drama)
Black Panther
BlackKKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Best Director – Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Best Actress (Drama)
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun
John C. Reilly Stan & Ollie
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, Beale Street
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Best Screenplay
Roma
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Green Book
Best Original Score
A Quiet Place
Isle of Dogs
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Song
All the Stars, Black Panther
Girl in the Movies, Dumplin’
Requiem for a Private War, A Private War
Revelation, Boy Erased
Shallow, A Star is Born
Foreign
Capernaum
Never Look Away
Girl
Roma
Shoplifters
Animated
Mirai
Isle of Dogs
Incredibles 2
Spiderman into the Spiderverse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
The biggest, most obvious takeaway right off the bat is that they really loved Vice, as it leads with six nominations. This makes up for it missing NBR and AFI, which could partially be attributed to it screening so late. The film is going to be very controversial, but all it takes to get into Best Picture is to have a around 300 people list it in first place, and Vice should have enough passionate fans to push it into the race. At the very least, Bale and Adams are locks, and Sam Rockwell could push his way into the very thin Supporting Actor race following his win in the category last year for Three Billboards.
Ironically, the Comedy categories are much more competitive than their drama counterparts this year, as the line is increasingly blurred each year by comedic dramas and dramatic comedies. A case could be made for Green Book, The Favourite, Vice, and BlacKkKlansman in either category, but only BlacKkKlansman is in drama. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born not being in the Comedy/MUSICAL category is blatant category fraud in my opinion, especially considering that is the category the previous versions of A Star is Born competed, not to mention other musical biopics like Walk the Line and Ray. But what’s done is done. Side note: Roma was ineligible for Best Picture because it is foreign, but showing up in Foreign Language, Director, and Writer is a great showing nonetheless.
BlacKkKlansman got a much needed bump, especially Spike Lee’s directing nomination and John David Washington’s surprise Drama Actor citation. It did miss screenplay, however.
Green Book getting in for both director and screenplay is a surprise, and suggests it was very well liked. I still struggle to imagine Peter Farrelly getting in for Director, especially over Yorgos Lanthimos. But many lists are leaving off Lanthimos (including the Globes). But it will take a bit more than this for me to adjust those predictions.
A Star is Born is exactly the kind of movie the HFPA dreams of, so it is surprising that it only received five nominations. This could work out in its favor, preventing it from being seen as too big of an early frontrunner (like La La Land two years ago, which had a record number of nominations from the Globes). But it is a little bit concerning for the film. It got in the big four categories- Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress- as well as Song (honestly, the Oscars should just engrave the statue now, because there is almost no way Shallow loses). Screenplay is a big miss, but there are only five slots at the Globes as they do not differentiate between Original and Adapted, and the Screenplay is often cited as the film’s weakest component. The big miss, however, is Sam Elliott in Supporting Actor.
Elliott was seen as one of the earliest frontrunners for the win, this is a huge snub. But he is also missing quite a few critic’s list. Just yesterday he missed out on the San Francisco Critics list of five, and he has missed several others this week as well. I was always baffled by his frontrunner status, as he only has a few minutes of screen time, and much of his dialogue was unintelligible to me. It seems as though others are agreeing, and people will no longer feel the “obligation” to vote for him because they “should.”
I’ve been saying that Supporting Actor is wide open, and now is a prime time for someone else to swoop in and either dominate the awards season, or for a whole new batch of contenders to emerge as the early leaders are all looking week. None of the supposed “top five” are safe. Elliott is missing out on too many lists. Beautiful Boy hasn’t shown up anywhere outside of Timothee Chalamet. Mahershala Ali won just two years ago, and the consensus is that his Green Book performance is not as good as his work in Moonlight (although, to be fair, few performances can compare with that). Richard E Grant is making almost every list, but Can You Ever Forgive Me? has largely fallen out of the conversation besides for him McCarthy in Actress, and possible Screenplay. And Adam Driver’s performance in BlacKkKlansman has been holding on by a thread to stay in the top five.
Out of these, only Grant and Ali are looking particularly safe for nominations, leaving a lot of room for others to rise up. Rockwell is looking the most threatening for Vice, but he has to deal with competition from his costar Steve Carrell. Michael B. Jordan definitely has his fans and the category is weak enough for him to break in with his Black Panther performance, especially if the film continues to perform this well in precursors. I was thinking Daniel Kaluuya could be a threat for Widows, but that film has largely been shut out. The last two serious contenders are Russell Hornsby for The Hate U Give which has some critical backing, even if the film never became a contender, and Hugh Grant for Paddington 2 (yes, seriously). Grant was nominated for a BAFTA for his hilarious performance as the film’s theatrical antagonist. Despite being shut out by the Globes, Paddington 2 is still a contender in several categories, especially production design and cinematography, and it was a surprise inclusion on the VFX longlist. Finally, Josh Hamilton for Eighth Grade has been collecting some surprise accolades, or Nicholas Hoult could ride a wave for The Favourite to a surprise nomination. Or, someone not even on my radar could burst into the conversation. I don’t know. It’s weird for a category to still be so wide open at this point, but it makes the race interesting.
Black Panther got in for Drama, Score, and Song. The score nomination is a welcome surprise, and the Drama nomination solidifies it as a serious contender. It’s the first superhero film to get a Best Picture- Drama nomination at the Globes (although 2016’s Deadpool got in for Comedy).
The trifecta of NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, and Globes Best Picture is powerful. Since the Oscars expanded, the only film to hit all three and miss Best Picture at the Oscars is Inside Llewyn Davis in 2013. This is good news for Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star is Born. I’m still hesitant on Poppins, as it just screened and the review embargo is yet to drop, but people are really liking it apparently. Still, it remains hard to imagine Panther and Poppins both making it, but the have history on their side.
Now, let’s talk about snubs. Widows was completely shut out. It is somewhat baffling that it couldn’t get in over Bohemain Rhapsody, but this is the final nail in the coffin for the film, following misses from both NBR and AFI. First Man only showed up for Score and Claire Foy for Supporting Actress, another huge miss for the film. This also seems to put an end to the film’s Best Picture chances, as well as Director and Actor for Ryan Gosling. Another snub is First Reformed, which was completely shut out, even in Best Actor for Ethan Hawke. This is perhaps the most baffling snub. The film is very niche and small and not at all the type that the Globes go for, but Willem Dafoe got in for At Eternity’s Gate, which is much smaller and less “buzzy”. While this a setback for the film and Hawke, it will still be able to recover, as this is its first actual miss. The film, and Hawke, have been listed for Picture and Actor by nearly every critic’s group so far. The film is still on the Picture bubble, but I think Hawke is still safe for a nomination, although this really hurts his chances of actually winning, which is something I had begun to lean towards.
Eighth Grade also took a hit, missing Comedy Picture and Screenplay, but it did deservedly garner a nomination for its young star, Elsie Fisher. Again, this is just a setback for the film which has been doing surprisingly well with critic’s awards, but it still is damaging. Crazy Rich Asians remains a wildcard. It got in Comedy Picture and Actress as expected, but it really needed Michelle Yeoh in Supporting Actress to build more momentum.
Leave No Trace was shut out completely, so it looks like the film (which has a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) will not be a contender this year. Vox Lux, Mary Queen of Scots, and Ben is Back were all also shut out once again.
A Quiet Place and Hereditary both missed out big time, with the only nomination between them being A Quiet Place for score, a bit disappointing following A Quiet Place‘s surprise NBR and AFI inclusions. Toni Collette is still in the race, but hanging on by a thread.
The Globes tossed a lifeline to several performance. As previously mentioned, Willem Dafoe is back in the mix with At Eternity’s Gate after nearly winning the Oscar last year. One of the biggest surprises was Rosamund Pike for A Private War, which has been gaining steam among critics, and this nomination could be the needed boost to encourage voters to actually watch the film. Nicole Kidman also got a surprise nomination in Drama Actress for Destroyer, which could put her in the conversation, even though she missed for Boy Erased in Supporting Actress. Speaking of, Boy Erased is still staying in the race with a Drama Actor nomination for Lucas Hedges, as well as song. I think Erased‘s best chance for a boost would be getting a SAG Ensemble nomination, and I wouldn’t count on Hedges or Kidman yet (or even Russell Crowe in the barren Supporting Actor category, come to think of it). It’s the kind of movie that actors love, full of big performances. Robert Redford’s The Old Man & the Gun nomination keeps him barely in the race. Charlize Theron’s nomination for Tully is nice, but this is probably the end of the road for that film.
For those interest in smaller categories, If Beale Street Could Talk missing Score is a shock, as it was the favorite to win the Oscar. A consensus for Animated feature is beginning to form, with the five listed here looking like the final five for the Oscars (and Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse has become a dark horse for the win). The Globes snubbed Cold War in foreign film.
While they were never serious contenders for the Oscars, it is a bit disappointing that films like Sorry to Bother You and Love, Simon missed out, as a Globe Comedy nomination is about as far as those films could have gone.
Overall, the Globe nominations are pretty solid. They do not shake up the race substantially, but they do shift things a bit. They bring a few more films and performances into the conversation, and solidify that a few others are basically “out.” Remember, one precursor individually does not do a ton, but they help form the big picture of what the consensus is becoming. Finally, here are how some major films were affected by these nominations
Helped
Vice (puts it into the race, most nominations)
BlacKkKlansman (needed a boost, Lee in director, surprise actor, missed screenplay)
Roma (foreign, screenplay, and director, but no acting)
Mary Poppins Returns (keeps appearing, actress
A Private War (puts Rosamund Pike into race)
Green Book (in for picture, director and screenplay)
Black Panther (in for picture, surprise nom in score, but misses acting, writing, and directing)
Bohemian Rhapsody (in for picure and actor)
Boy Erased (actor and song keeps it visible)
The Favourite (three acting noms, writing, and picture, but missed director)
The Old Man & the Gun (keeps Robert Redford relevant)
Tully (likely only major accolade for Charlize Theron’s performance)
Neutral
Crazy Rich Asians (in pic and actress, but needed supporting actress)
A Star is Born (missed screenplay and supporting actor)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (two acting, but nowhere else)
Harmed
Eighth Grade (missed comedy picture)
First Reformed (shut out)
First Man (only in for score and supporting actress)
A Quiet Place (only in for score)
Hereditary (shut out)
Widows (shut out)
Suspiria (shut out)
Cold War (shut out)
Ben is Back (shut out)
Vox Lux (shut out)
Film Central 