[Note: An error with WordPress prevented this from being posted when originally sheduled. This was intended to be published on December 13, 2018.]
The past few weekends at the box office have been pretty dull, with Ralph and The Grinch dominating basically by default. Now, we are out of the lull and the next few weeks will be seeing over ten wide releases. This weekend, the animated Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will take the crown, while Clint Eastwood will attract adult audiences with his supposed final performance in The Mule.
When it was announced, Into the Spider-Verse sounded silly. An animated Spider-Man movie connected to neither the current Marvel Universe nor the current live-action Spider-Man, being given a wide release in theaters? The fourth cinematic version of Spider-Man in the past fifteen years? But then the trailer came out and blew everyone away with its stunning animation and clever humor, bringing together various comics-inspired versions of Spider-Man, easily justifying its existence. To top it all off, the film is one of the best reviewed movies of the year, animated, superhero, or otherwise, with a stunning 98% on Rotten Tomatoes with a crazy 8.8/10 average rating. The film had a lot working against it, but it has seemingly overcome them and should translate its reviews and impressive trailers into box office success.
Into the Spider-Verse‘s has been tracking for a debut around $30-35 million over the three day weekend, and I think it should be able to land on the higher end of that. As I mentioned, the reviews are insanely positive, and Spider-Man is one of the most popular characters ever created. Plus, this is the first film to portray the popular Miles Morales version of Spider-Man, introduced into comics in 2011. The film does have to deal with animated competition from Ralph and Grinch, but those are in their fourth and sixth weekends of release, respectively. In 2017, The Lego Batman Movie opened with $53 million, but that was riding off the success of The Lego Movie, so I don’t expect Spider-Verse to go that high. Expect an opening around $36 million, and strong legs through the holidays.
Clint Eastwood’s The Mule, his first starring role since 2012’s Trouble with the Curve, will take second place. The film, which went into production this past June, has high interest among older moviegoers, which suggests that it will have solid legs. Reviews are good but not great, which may not attract people who were’t already interested, but it shouldn’t scare away anyone who wasn’t already interested. His last film, The 15:17 to Paris, opened to $12.5 million with horrible reviews and no star power. Look for The Mule, which also stars Bradley Cooper, to open around $15 million, with a chance to breakout.
The last new opener is Mortal Engines, an adaptation of a popular young-adult book series produced by Peter Jackson, which is looking to be the first major casualty of a packed month. While the visuals are appealing, the film has struggled to gain traction, largely because the story appears to be a collection of young-adult tropes that went out of style earlier this decade. These book adaptations have all but stopped following a series of massive bombs from 2010 to 2013, and Mortal Engines won’t reverse that trend. The $100 million film is looking at an opening around $12.5 million.
This will be the first weekend that The Grinch outgrosses Ralph, despite opening two weeks earlier. Grinch, which has been having amazing holds, will take advantage of the approaching holidays and will make around $12 million.
Despite winning the box office three weekends in a row, Ralph Breaks the Internet has been somewhat of a disappointment for Disney. The sequel has been very frontloaded for an animated film, and it may struggle to hit $200 million at this point. It is looking at a $9.5 million weekend.
Elsewhere on the chart, Deadpool 2 was rereleased with bonus scenes as the PG-13 Once Upon a Deadpool on Wednesday, and could crack the top 10 for the weekend with around $3.5 million. And The Favourite, which has been performing exceptionally well in limited release, is having its largest expansion yet, jumping from 91 to 438 theaters, which also could give it a chance at entering the top 10. This will be its chance to prove it could be a successful, mainstream hit. I’m bullish on the film, and think it will sneak into tenth place.
Predictions
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse- $36.7 million
The Mule- $16.1 million
Mortal Engines- $12.2 million
The Grinch- $11.9 million
Ralph Breaks the Internet- $10.5 million
Creed II- $6.0 million
Bohemian Rhapsody- $4.3 million
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald- $3.8 million
Instant Family- $3.7 million
The Favourite- $3.5 million
Once Upon a Deadpool– $3.4 million
Green Book- $3.3 million
Film Central 