Academy Unveils Shortlists for Nine Categories

The Oscars are trying something a little different this year: they are unveiling all nine shortlists simultaneous, as opposed to staggering them as they traditionally have done. On Monday, the shortlists for nine categories were unveiled. Several of these categories (visual effects, make up) will have “bake offs” which will give the potential nominees the chance to show off their work, before final voting for nominees begins. As usual, a few surprises and snubs occurred.

Here are the shortlists:

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Charm City”
“Communion”
“Crime + Punishment”
“Dark Money”
“The Distant Barking of Dogs”
“Free Solo”
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
“Minding the Gap”
“Of Fathers and Sons”
“On Her Shoulders”
“RBG”
“Shirkers”
“The Silence of Others”
“Three Identical Strangers”
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”

Analysis: A strong consensus has formed in this category, with nearly every group citing Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, RBG, Free Solo and Minding the Gap. Surprisingly, all of them made it in here (this category is known to have major snubs). While those five are looking really solid, I wouldn’t count out Shirkers, Crime + Punishment, or Hale County This Morning, This Evening. This has been a very strong year for documentaries, and RBG is the one most likely to be snubbed, as it is very standard and lightweight compared to its competition.
Snub: Netflix’s typically does well here (and even won with last year’s Icarus), so their Quincy missing is a bit of a surprise. They will probably now shift gears to focus on pushing Shirkers.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Colombia, “Birds of Passage”
Denmark, “The Guilty”
Germany, “Never Look Away”
Japan, “Shoplifters”
Kazakhstan, “Ayka”
Lebanon, “Capernaum”
Mexico, “Roma”
Poland, “Cold War”
South Korea, “Burning”

Analysis: No major snubs here, either. This category is so well known for shocking snubs that a committee was made that selects three additional films for the shortlist to prevent this category from embarrassing itself too often. This category also has had a “consensus” five for a while now with Roma, Cold War, Burning, Shoplifters, and Capernaum. I really can’t see anything changing that, but this category loves to go against the grain with nominations.
Snub: Girl from Belgium which is backed by Netflix. Perhaps it is for the best that it missed, as it is highly controversial and this will save Netflix the inevitable PR headache (it’s a trangender drama made by cisgender people that has largely been rejected by the trans community, and also features underage nudity) that the film would bring with a nomination.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Stan & Ollie”
“Suspiria”
“Vice”

Analysis: I can see any combination of these films getting in. Black Panther has to be the frontrunner due to the sheer volume of makeup work done on that film, and this category is the film’s best chance at winning an Oscar (which would also be Marvel’s first). Border is probably in since it made it this far, and this category loves Swedish films. A case could be made for every other film. Suspiria features the transformation of Tilda Swinton into an old man, Vice made Christian Bale into Dick Cheney, and Bohemian Rhapsody made Rami Malek into Freddie Mercury. Mary Queen of Scots has the striking images of Margot Robbie as Queen Elizabeth, which I think will be enough to push it to a nomination. This category really needs to expand from three to five nominations.
Snub: The Favourite is the biggest miss here, especially since Mary Queen of Scots was cited. Will the film have enough support in the craft categories to make it to a Best Picture win?

VISUAL EFFECTS
“Ant-Man and the Wasp”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Black Panther”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
“Welcome to Marwen”

Analysis: Disney has six of the ten shortlisted films, including three from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Christopher Robin is a surprise for sure. This category has gone to a Best Picture nominee every year one has been nominated every time this century except 2015 (when Ex Machina beat Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant and non-nominee Star Wars: The Force Awakens in the most statistically improbable upset in Oscars history). The last superhero film to win was Spider-Man 2 in 2004. This category tends to go to more “prestige” or unique films like Life of Pi or Gravity.

This is a really weak lineup this year with no true standouts (especially without Annihilation here). If Black Panther is nominated, it will likely win. If it misses the nomination, then First Man will pull of the win. Black Panther‘s biggest obstacle will be getting nominated, as its VFX work is one of its weaker elements- remember, everyone votes for the winner, but only VFX workers select the nominees. I’d rank their chances as: Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Ready Player One, and finally Solo: A Star Wars Story. As an aside, if Solo misses here, it will be the first Star Wars film ever not to receive an Oscar nomination.
Snub: Aquaman is the big miss, especially as its VFX has been praised universally (and certainly must be better than Ant-Man). Paddington 2 was on the 20 film longlist, but didn’t get in here, despite Christopher Robin being included. Finally, Annihilation missed the longlist, which is a shock considering Alex Garland’s previous film was Ex Machina.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
“Annihilation”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Death of Stalin”
“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”
“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“A Quiet Place”
“Ready Player One”
“Vice”

Analysis: All worthy inclusions. If Beale Street Could Talk remains the frontrunner, with Black Panther gaining steam. First Man is likely in as well (Hurwitz won two years ago for La La Land). If the Oscars want to change things up, Annihilation would be a good choice. Mary Poppins Returns has a strong shot especially if it wracks up a bunch of nominations. A Quiet Place and Ballad of Buster Scruggs have the best chances at surprise nominations. But everything is seriously in play on this list.
Snub: It’s hard to consider anything really a snub in this category at this point, as there really have never been a ton of contenders in this category. But the one that had the best odds to get in that missed would be Suspiria.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Treasure” from “Beautiful Boy”
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther”
“Revelation” from “Boy Erased”
“Girl In The Movies” from “Dumplin’”
“We Won’t Move” from “The Hate U Give”
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
“Trip A Little Light Fantastic” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
“Keep Reachin’” from “Quincy”
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from “Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“OYAHYTT” from “Sorry to Bother You”
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
“Suspirium” from “Suspiria”
“The Big Unknown” from “Widows”

Analysis: No big surprises here. “OYAHYTT” from Sorry to Bother You is a great choice and so unlike everything else selected. I would love for that to end up as an Oscar-nominated film. “Shallow” is taking home the Oscar and I don’t think anything can change that. Warner Bros. opted to only submit “Shallow” instead of risking a vote split with two nominees, so this will make their nomination count one lower than it could have been but essentially guarantees the win. If I were them, I would have submitted two songs, as “Shallow” is strong enough to win against basically anything (“City of Stars” won in 2016 despite La La Land also having “Audition” nominated). Anyway, “All the Stars” is probably in, as is at least one Poppins song. Dolly Parton has been campaigning hard, which should be enough to get “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ in. Last spot is up for grabs, and is probably between “Revelation” and “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings.”
Snub: “Requiem for a Private War” from A Private War and “Here Comes the Change” from On the Basis of Sex are the most glaring omissions.

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
“Black Sheep”
“End Game”
“Lifeboat”
“Los Comandos”
“My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes”
“A Night at the Garden”
“Period. End of Sentence.”
“’63 Boycott”
“Women of the Gulag”
“Zion”

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
“Age of Sail”
“Animal Behaviour”
“Bao”
“Bilby”
“Bird Karma”
“Late Afternoon”
“Lost & Found”
“One Small Step”
“Pépé le Morse”
“Weekends”