We’ve finally made it to the most crowded box office weekend of the year. Five films are opening wide, including three huge, big budget blockbusters. With Christmas falling on a Tuesday, it is essentially a five day weekend, on top of Christmas being a huge day for the box office. Mary Poppins Returns got an early start, opening this past Wednesday. Opening on Friday we have the Transformers spinoff/reboot Bumblebee, the latest DC Superhero movie Aquaman, comedy Second Act, and drama Welcome to Marwen. Also joining the chaos are expansions of Mary Queen of Scots and The Favourite. Finally, Christmas day sees the release of Dick Cheney biopic/satire Vice, and Will Ferrel/John C Reilly comedy Holmes and Watson, but those will not be included in this preview.
Aquaman is set to top the box office. The film opened internationally two weeks ago where it has been performing phenomenally. It looks like the DC Universe is getting back on track as this also has good reviews. It has some work to do to convince audiences to come back to a DC movie following the hated Batman v Super: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad, as well as last year’s bomb Justice League. But word of mouth has been strong, with emphasis on the film being fun and enjoyable compared to the dull slogs that precede it. The marketing has done a good job separating this from the Zack Snyder movies, the last of which came out thirteen months ago at this point. While this would undoubtedly do better had the other films in the series been better received, it should still do well and help get audiences interested in this series again. It is looking at a $80 million three day opening, and should be able to ride positive word of mouth to strong holiday legs.
Mary Poppins Returns remains a bit of a mystery, but it is currently looking like it will still take second place. Early word was very strong, as it began to collect some high profile awards nominations from the Golden Globes and American Film Institute, but then the review embargo dropped and critics have been positive, but not as enthused as early buzz had suggested, with a pretty-good-but-not-great 78% on RottenTomatoes and an unenthusiastic 65 on Metacritic. These are decent scores, but definitely underwhelming compared to expectations that it would be among the best of the year. The question remains whether audiences are interested in a sequel to a fifty year old classic. Returns has been heavily marketed towards families, but the marketplace currently has a glut of family offerings. Some reviews have mentioned that the film is too long for young kids to sit through, and the response to the film’s music has been weak, which is a very bad sign for musicals.
An opening three day between $25-30 million seems reasonable for Poppins. It does have a strong cast, and potentially nostalgia for the original. Plus, musicals have been performing very well recently. It has made $8.8 million from its first two days of release, so it could make nearly $60 million over a seven day opening, which would be a good start. But this release is clearly banking on playing very well over the next few weeks, which will depend on the audience reception.
Bumblebee is in a similar predicament to Aquaman, in that it is following up a film that was universally hated. The Transformers series has never done well critically despite financial success, but audience good will finally went away with the last release, 2017’s The Last Knight which made barely half its predecessor and less than one third of the peak of the franchise. So Paramount changed gears and finally passed the reigns to someone besides Michael Bay, letting Travis Knight make a prequel/reboot. It seems to have worked, as the film has been raved about by both fans and, shockingly, critics. The film has a great 94% on RottenTomatoes (compare that to the other films, which scored 57%, 19%, 35%, 18%, and 15%). Still, the Transformers brand has taken a hit. Even if the film is only a mild success financially, it’s more important job will be restoring audience faith Paramount’s big cash cow franchise and setting up a better series of films. Opening alongside Aquaman definitely hurts it, but Bumblebee will still open around $25 million over the three day, and I expect strong legs as this will have the best word of mouth of all the releases.
Fourth place will belong to last weekend’s champion, Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse. The acclaimed film should have a strong hold, but there is just so much competition that it will fall harder than typical. The film has also been performing more like a frontloaded superhero movie than a family film. Expect around $17 million for the weekend.
Also opening is Second Act. The comedy is attempting to be counterprogramming against all of the blockbusters and superheroes and will make around $7 million.
Our last new opener is Welcome to Marwen, which is set to join Mortal Engines as another casualty of a crowded December. Although I don’t think there is any day that this film could have released and not been a bomb. The based-on-a-true-story CGI-heavy drama about a hate crime victim who creates a miniature world full of dolls that are fetishized versions of women in his life has been torn apart by critics. Between the brutal reviews, confounding trailers, unintentionally creepy aspects of the film, its unclear who this movie is for. It will be the latest bomb from legendary director Robert Zemickis (Back to the Future, Forrest Gump). It looks to be this year’s Collateral Beauty or Downsizing– an Oscar-bait, high concept drama with a famous star and strong supporting cast released over Christmas that ends up being hated by critics and becomes a massive bomb and a punchline. Both of those films made around $7 million over their openings (Downsizing over a four day weekend). I can’t see Welcome to Marwen opening above that. Expect a $4 million three day and maybe $6 million over the five day, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go even lower.
The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots are both expanding again following strong limited releases. The Favourite will hit 788 theaters while Mary Queen of Scots will be in 795 theaters. The Favourite once again has a chance at reaching the top 10, especially if Mortal Engines plummets worse than expected, and is expected to make around $3.5 million, while Mary Queen of Scots will likely land around $2.2 million.
Predictions (three day weekend)
Aquaman– $80.8 million
Mary Poppins Returns– $29.2 million
Bumblebee– $24.1 million
Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse– $17.5 million
The Grinch– $10.1 million
The Mule- $9 million
Second Act– $7.0 million
Ralph Breaks the Internet– $6.5 million
Welcome to Marwen– $4.2 million
Mortal Engines– $3.5 million
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