Earlier today, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their nominations for Outstanding films this year. The PGA does like to honor financial successes as the guild, consisting of producers, understand and admire the hard work required in making high quality, accessible, and successful films. This year, however, they went all-in on popular films.
Just months after the Oscars threatened us with a ridiculous “popular films” category, it looks like it won’t be needed, as many of the major contenders this year are huge hits. While not all of them will get into the Oscars lineup- typically two or three miss, perhaps more this year if the Oscars tastes don’t run quite as mainstream- we are still looking at an Oscar lineup where most people will have likely seen three or four of the nominees, which may be what the Oscars need to increase their relevance among viewers. Let’s take a look at the nominees and how this affects the race.
The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:
“Black Panther” (Producer: Kevin Feige)
“BlacKkKlansman” (Producers: Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Producer: Graham King)
“Crazy Rich Asians” (Producers: Nina Jacobson & Brad Simpson, John Penotti)
“The Favourite” (Producers: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos)
“Green Book” (Producers: Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
“A Quiet Place” (Producers: Michael Bay, Andrew Form, Brad Fuller)
“Roma” (Producers: Gabriela Rodríguez, Alfonso Cuarón)
“A Star Is Born” (Producers: Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, Lynette Howell Taylor)
“Vice” (Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Kevin Messick, Adam McKay)
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
“Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch” (Producers: Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy)
“Incredibles 2” (Producers: John Walker, Nicole Grindle)
“Isle of Dogs” (Producers: *Eligibility Determination Pending*)
“Ralph Breaks the Internet” (Producer: Clark Spencer)
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (Producers: Avi Arad, Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg)
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures (Previously Announced)
“The Dawn Wall” (Producers: Josh Lowell, Peter Mortimer, Philipp Manderla)
“Free Solo” (Producers: Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, Shannon Dill)
“Hal” (Producers: Christine Beebe, Jonathan Lynch, Brian Morrow)
“Into the Okavango” (Producer: Neil Gelinas)
“RBG” (Producers: Betsy West, Julie Cohen)
“Three Identical Strangers” (Producers: Becky Read, Grace Hughes-Hallett)
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” (Producers: Morgan Neville, Nicholas Ma, Caryn Capotosto)
The PGA list has a mix of locks and surprises. At this point, we appear to have six locks: A Star is Born, Roma, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Black Panther, and Green Book. These have looked like locks for a while, and making this list ensures it. I would be shocked to see any of these miss out. This list is already much more accessible than a typical Oscar lineup, as Black Panther ($700.0m) is the highest grossing film of year domestically, A Star is Born ($201.5m) was a major hit and a bit of a cultural phenomenon, BlacKkKlansman ($48.2m) was moderately popular over the summer, Green Book may have underwhelmed commercially but has still made $33.4m and is far from an art film, and The Favourite, despite being weird, has been doing extremely well in its limited release, with $17.3m to date and a strong chance at doing much more in its run. Yes, Roma, a black and white, Spanish-language art film with minimal plot is about as art-house as it gets, but that is available on Netflix, so anybody that wants to watch it can do so pretty easily, and it is nice to have some more variety in the lineup.
It’s the rest of the PGA lineup where it gets wildly mainstream. Vice is early in its run right now, but it has done alright so far with $24.0m to date, and it is full of huge stars. While the film is polarizing, being included here (as well as leading the Golden Globe nominations) does wonders for its chances. A key to an Oscar nomination is passion, and this may be the controversial film that sneaks in thanks to a passionate fanbase.
The last three nominees are A Quiet Place ($188m), Bohemian Rhapsody ($191+), and Crazy Rich Asians ($174m). These are three of the biggest breakout hits of the year, so in that sense its no wonder that the producer’s guild recognized them. They also represent some categories that the Academy typically ignore- Romantic Comedy and Horror. All three of these have done surprisingly well this among award precursors. Have they been underestimated? Crazy Rich Asians now has SAG, PGA, and Golden Globe nominations, a powerful trio. Ditto for Bohemian Rhapsody. A Quiet Place may not have major guild support, but it was cited by both AFI and NBR.
Out of those three, it seems likely at this point that at least one will be getting into the Oscars. Which has the best chance? A Quiet Place could follow in the footsteps of Get Out last year, which proved that horror can still make an impact at the Oscars, and it is likely to get at least one sound nomination, maybe two, and Emily Blunt has become a dark horse for the wide-open fifth Supporting Actress slot. But A Quiet Place is no Get Out, and does not seem to have the critical or guild support needed.
Crazy Rich Asians has done really well, but where else could it get nominated? The weakest Best Picture nominees had one other nominations: The Blind Side won Actress, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was nominated for Supporting Actor, and The Post was nominated for Actress. Where else could Rich get in? Perhaps Michelle Yeoh could surprise for Supporting Actress, but she has missed every precursor. Maybe production design or costume design, and an extreme longshot for Adapted Screenplay. With so many other big movies nearly locked, it seems unlikely for this to also get in.
That brings us to Bohemian Rhapsody. It seems like people love this movie. Despite mixed critical reviews, it has done insane box office both domestic and worldwide, and Queen is one of the most popular bands of all time. Not only is Malek locked for Best Actor, but there are some rumblings that he may actually win. Plus, it’s not stretch to see it getting in for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup, and Costume Design. With Golden Globe nominations, as well as a shocking SAG Ensemble nomination, and now PGA, it looks like Bohemian Rhapsody may become one of the worst Best Picture nominees of the century.
What didn’t make the Oscar list but is still in play? Usually one or two films miss PGA and make the Oscars lineup. The big PGA snub is If Beale Street Could Talk, which has been underwhelming among precursors and critics prizes thus far. While it still seems like it will get in, director Barry Jenkins will probably miss. Beale Street may end up like 2015’s Carol and be the shocking snub of a critically acclaimed art-house film from a great director that misses Picture despite several major nominations.
First Man desperately needed to rebound here, but it missed, so it is almost definitely dead. Mary Poppins Returns was initially looking strong, but it seems to have faded with soft critic reviews and only okay box office. It may be joining Inside Llewyn Davis as the second film to be cited by AFI/NBG/GG and still miss picture. Widows, unfortunately, is deader than dead, if there was any lingering doubt. First Reformed won’t be making Picture, and is on the bubble for Actor, but should at least make Original Screenplay. Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? seem to be completely out at this point, barring a massive shock on Oscar morning. There is virtually no chance of any film I have not mentioned making Best Picture, as much as I would love for something great and completely unexpected to crash the ceremony.
Current Predictions
BEST PICTURE– Top Six are locked
1.) The Favourite
2.) A Star is Born
3.) Roma
4.) BlacKkKlansman
5.) Black Panther
6.) Green Book
7.) If Beale Street Could Talk
8.) Vice
9.) Bohemian Rhapsody
10.) Crazy Rich Asians
11.) Mary Poppins Returns
12.) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
13.) Eighth Grade
14.) First Man
15.) A Quiet Place
16.) First Reformed
DIRECTOR
There really don’t seem to be a ton of people in contention, as many of the Picture nominees aren’t “director’s movies.” Coogler would be unexpected, but his film may end up with the most nominations, and everyone around him seems to be falling while Panther has been rising for weeks now. Finally, it seems almost every director has the utmost respect for Lynne Ramsay’s work on You Were Never Really Here- perhaps she could be the jaw-dropper of the decade.
Predicted Five
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Next In Line
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
ACTRESS
The first four seem locked, but I can imagine a scenario for each of them missing. Fifth slot feels wide open with Blunt the favorite for it, but I feel like something crazy may happen.
Predicted Five
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Next In Line
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Far Back
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Viola Davis, Widows
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
ACTOR
Top four seem like locks, but I have a feeling that one of the Green Book actors will be shockingly snubbed, most likely Mortensen. Critical love should be enough to get Hawke in, but Washington has been rising and will likely get in if BlacKkKlansman is a serious threat to win it all. Seems to be just down to seven contenders.
Predicted Five
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Next In Line
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Far Back
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Top four seem have gotten in virtually everywhere, with the win down to King v Adams. The fifth slot is wide open and could end up going to a performance from a movie that overperforms on Oscar morning, but I think Kidman will take it as she is well liked and gives a phenomenal performance. If A Quiet Place sneaks into Picture, Blunt will likely get in here (and she has a chance at being a double nominee with Poppins).
Predicted Five
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Next In Line
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Claire Foy, First Man
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Far Back
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
SUPPORTING ACTOR
I’ve been waiting for this category to evolve, as everyone has felt so vulnerable, but it seems no group wants to go against the norm, so this has become a pretty stagnant and disappointing lineup. The only locks are Ali and Grant. I’m predicting the “frontrunner” Elliott to be snubbed. Chalamet’s movie has been completely rejected outside his performance, so he is likely first to go if they want to bring in a surprise.
Predicted Five
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Next In Line
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Far Back
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Steve Carell, Vice
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
There are really only nine contenders here, but they are all very strong. This could be the big miss for A Star Is Born, as even its biggest fans acknowledge that the script is the weakest element. This category may be where Spike Lee wins his incredibly overdue Oscar.
Predicted Five
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Black Panther
Leave No Trace
Next In Line
A Star Is Born
The Death of Stalin
Widows
First Man
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Barring something crazy, there are only eight contenders here. This could be a big miss for Roma which is certainly not an achievement in writing, or Green Book. The Favourite should steamroll the competition, but it’s too early to call that. My gut tells me Bo Burnham will get a consolation prize for his fantastic Eighth Grade, but it will have to take down a major contender to do so.
Predicted Five
The Favourite
First Reformed
Vice
Roma
Eighth Grade
Next In Line
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Sorry to Bother You
We’re just a few weeks away from the nominations, but first we have the Golden Globes on Sunday. Thanks for reading!
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