Tonight at 8 PM ET we have our first major televised awards show of the year, the Golden Globes. While the Globes are not the best predictors of the Oscars (they tend to favor big stars and popular movies, and with less than 100 voters, upsets happen easily), being the second largest awards ceremony of the year, they can be a good indicator of what performances and which films have buzz, and can help films build momentum. They also work to encourage voters to actually watch certain films, if a smaller or more obscure film manages to pull of a big win, then voters will realize they “have” to watch that one. Oscar voting opens up tomorrow, and closes on the 14th, so we are heading towards the second phase.
Here are the expected winners and upsets to watch out for.
Best Picture — Drama
A Star Is Born — If this loses, it may be in trouble come Oscar time. This should be a lock. The possible spoiler is BlacKkKlansman.
Best Actor — Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born — The Globes are absolutely going to want to honor Cooper, and this is the place to get him up on the stage. However, buzz is building for Malek, and the Globes seemed to have loved Bohemian Rhapsody. A Malek win (and an inevitable BAFTA win as well) could build him enough momentum to take the Oscar.
Best Actress — Drama
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born — It’s hard to imagine her not winning this. Perhaps Glenn Close could win, and she may even have the better chance at the Oscar, but this is the Globes.
Best Picture — Musical/Comedy
Vice — This is the category to watch. The Favourite is the strongest contender out of the lineup, but the Globes snubbed director Yorgos Lanthimos. The last time a film without a Best Picture Globe without a director nomination against a film with a director nomination was over 25 years ago. This suggests it’s either Vice or Green Book, and the Globes liked Vice enough to reward it with the most nominations, so expect it to take the win here.
Best Actor — Musical/Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice — It’s Bale vs Mortensen, but while Mortensen’s odds have been fading, Bale’s have just been getting stronger.
Best Actress — Musical/Comedy
Olivia Colman, The Favorite — Colman, who has remained my pick to win the Oscar for months now, will need this win to build momentum against Lady Gaga. But watch out for Emily Blunt. If Blunt takes this win, it likely means she is “in” as the fifth Best Actress nominee.
Supporting Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy — Conventional wisdom says that this category is down to Richard E Grant (who will likely take the Oscar) and Mahershala Ali (who the Globes may want to award after passing on his Oscar-winning Moonlight performance two years ago). But the Globes like to get weird, and they love stars. Chalamet has risen so fast so quickly, that the Globes may be unable to resist the chance to have one of the most popular young actors alive up on the stage. I’m predicting this to be the big upset of the night.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice — Amy Adams and Regina King are going head to head twice tonight, once here, and again for Lead Actress in a Limited Series. Expect Adams, who already has two Globes, to prevail both times. She is a huge star compared to the lesser known King, and the Globes clearly love Vice, whereas If Beale Street Could Talk missed Director.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma — A case could be made for every nominee except Farrelly. Cuaron remains the favorite for the Oscar, and should take the Globe here, despite his film being ineligible to compete in the Best Picture category. Still, watch out for Spike Lee, a legendary filmmaker who has a great narrative to win Director nearly thirty years after his inexcusable Oscar snub for Do the Right Thing.
Best Screenplay
The Favourite — This is absolutely the hardest category to predict. If any film sweeps, they will likely take here as well, but I am expecting Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara’s hilarious dark comedy to win here.
Foreign Film
Roma — While this may seem like the most obvious category ever, there may be a chance that voters will feel as though Roma has enough accolades and was able to cross over to the other categories and may went to award something else in a year of brilliant foreign films. If this is the case, expect Palme d’Or winner Shoplifters to steal the trophy.
Original Score
Black Panther — While Poppins or First Man could take, the Globes will want to reward the highest grossing film of the year, and unless they want to have a major upset in Best Picture, this is the place to reward it.
Original Song
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born — Okay, this is the easiest category to predict.
Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse — If voters actually watched the films, this will be an easy win for Sider-Verse. If they haven’t watched the nominees, they will probably just choose Incredibles 2 because it says Pixar on the DVD case. A possible spoiler would be Isle of Dogs.
That’s it for the film categories. This should be a pretty exciting year for the Globes, with several close races, and many chances for huge upsets. Tune in to the Globes tonight to see what happens!
Film Central 