Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

We’ve almost made it. After months of precursors, reviews, arguing, controversies, schmoozing, and I guess watching the occasional movie, we are less than a day away from seeing what has been nominated for the 91st Academy Awards.

Below are my final predictions in every category, as well as the biggest threats to sneak in, and an explanation for each category. Just for fun, I’ve included a “potential shocker” or two for each category. Every once in a while, somebody or something completely unexpected and ends up sneaking in (such as Leslie Manville for Phantom Thread last year, or Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart in 2009). I’m also indicating a few potential snubs, because every year, a sure bet is inevitably left off the list (just ask Amy Adams, who was a frontrunner for Arrival).

Of course, the Oscars could end up being very predictable with their nominations and follow with exactly what has been expected for the past several months. But with such a massive gap between what films have been winning awards and what films are genuinely considered “good,” as well as some very weak acting fields, there is a decent chance that the Oscars goes their own way across the board and ignores what statistics suggest will be nominated.

Without further ado, here are my final predictions.

BEST PICTURE

1. Roma
2. A Star Is Born
3. Green Book
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Black Panther
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Vice
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. First Man
11. Eighth Grade
12. Crazy Rich Asians
13. A Quiet Place
14. Mary Poppins Returns
15. First Reformed
16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    Potential Shocker: Leave No Trace
    Snub Watch: Black Panther

I went over this category pretty extensively the other day, and nothing has changed since then. I am thinking we may be looking at eight nominees, which will mean Vice and Beale Street will be fighting for the last slot, unless there are nine and they both get in. Statistics suggest BoRap is a lock following the Globes win, SAG nom, and PGA nom, so it is in seventh, although it really is hard to imagine such a poorly received film making the cut.

Crazy Rich Asians has PGA and SAG, so that could be making the cut. Statistically, Poppins should be in after NBR and AFI citations, but I think that mostly benefitted from timing, as reviews weren’t out declaring the film to be “fine.” I would be surprised to see anything not in the top 13 make the cut. If you’re looking for a potential shocking snub, bet on Black Panther missing for being a superhero film.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
5. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
6. Adam McKay, Vice
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man
8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
10. Pawel Pawlikoswski, Cold War
    Potential Shocker: Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here, or Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
    Snub Watch: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

The top three seem to be locks, while the last two spots are up in the air. DGA chose McKay and Farrelly, and they usually match 4/5 with the Oscars. Will the Academy like the divisive Vice that much? Will they actually nominate Farrelly, who alienated most of Hollywood with Movie 43, for directing a glorified Hallmark movie in the midst of the story of his systemic harassment on sets? Green Book seems to be unstoppable despite its lack of quality and problematic creators, so unfortunately I think he is in (please, Oscars, don’t embarrass yourselves). I’m thinking McKay is the DGA member left off, and am adding in Lanthimos, as his film is going to get a slew of nominations, he already has a previous writing nomination (for The Lobster) and he has a very unique style that has earned him lots of respect very quickly.

There seems to have been a last minute push for Pawlikowski following his BAFTA nomination, although I find it hard to believe two of the five nominees will go to foreign, black and white films. There is also a chance this could be just the second time since the Best Picture expansion that we get a director nominee without a matching Picture nomination. Chazelle or Ramsay look most likely to pull that off, as both are tremendously respected among their peers.

There is a chance this ends up like 2012, when, despite several major directors releasing well received projects, everything felt up in the air, and DGA only matched the Oscars 2/5. If that’s the case, Cooper could end up like Ben Affleck, and miss a directing nomination for a Best Picture frontrunner. That year, the Academy, seemingly out of nowhere, recognized Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, a first time director making an indie darling starring a terrific young actress and a great performance in the role of the father. Sounds a bit like Bo Burnham and Eighth Grade….

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Oliva Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
7. Viola Davis, Widows
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary
9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
    Potential Shocker: Saorise Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
    Snub Watch: Lady Gaga

While the first four feel locked in, I could see anyone not named Glenn Close being snubbed for various reasons (Colman over category placement/internal competition issues, McCarthy if the movie really did not play well with the Academy or she has burnt too much goodwill with horrible comedies), but now especially Gaga. The Academy already has the Original Song trophy engraved for her, and now Close has taken the wind out of her sails in this race. Some could resent a first time actress being over-rewarded. I’m still predicting her to make it in, but she could be the biggest snub of the year.

The fifth slot has felt wide open forever. Aparicio could take it if they go crazy for Roma, but I think Blunt takes it. While Poppins has somewhat flopped after looking like a big contender early on, she has been snubbed too many times, and had such a good year (see also: A Quiet Place). Never count out Davis or Kidman. The potential major shock is Ronan, who already has three nominations under her belt, and could get in along with her costar, Margot Robbie.

BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
8. Ryan Gosling, First Man
   Potential Shocker: Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
   Snub Watch: Viggo Mortensen

This is such a thin race. I only included eight potential people because, honestly, nobody else has a legitimate shot. Anyone not in those first eight would be a jaw dropper. The first four feel locked, and the fifth is Hawke vs Washington. While Washington has gotten into more televised awards shows (and has a very famous father named Denzel), Hawke has nearly swept the critic’s awards and is very well liked. The critics can often get one performance nominated by sheer willpower (see: Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, Isabelle Huppert for Elle) and they seem to have thrown all their energy towards Hawke. If both make it in, look for Mortensen to miss out for his role as “Italian stereotype”, especially if the Academy decides they aren’t big on his movie.

As I said, anyone not in the top eight would be a shock, but I’m putting Foster as my choice for the shocker, since he is one of the best current actors without a nomination, his film is well liked despite being underseen, and Granik’s last film, Winter’s Bone, had a shocker nominee in the form of John Hawkes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams, Vice
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
4. Emma Stone, The Favourite
5. Claire Foy, First Man
6. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
7. Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
10. Marina de Tavira, Roma
    Potential Shocker: Linda Cardellini, Green Book
    Snub Watch: Emma Stone

The top four seemed locked with a wide open fifth slot. I think Globe nominee Foy takes it, especially considering her film will be getting quite a few nominations anyway. Blunt is on the bubble here as well- she could be the first double nominee in a decade, or be brutally snubbed twice in one day. Another potential (maybe 1/1000 chance) double nominee is Kidman, who gives one of the year’s best performances in one of the year’s most okay movies, but she is not someone to ever count out. If Crazy Rich Asians makes Picture, Yeoh could sneak in here. de Tavira has been campaigning and could make it here. The fifth slot may be a good bellwether for what film the Academy really loves.

Potential snub is Emma Stone, if the Academy doesn’t want to double dip on The Favourite here. Regina King also could be *the* snub- despite being a frontrunner, and winning the Globe, she missed SAG and her film has been underperforming. I won’t dare predict that, but expect riots if it does happen. Possible shocker would be Cardellini, who was cited in every Green Book speech at the Globes in some sort of stealth campaign. If the Academy goes crazy for the film, they may cite her performance as “supportive wife of main character who exists and has a few lines.” While she would be the most baffling nomination since Jackie Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook, a film I have seen three times and am still not convinced Jackie Weaver was even in it, I do love Cardellini for starring in Freaks and Geeks so I would be happy if it were to lead to making her the star she deserves to be.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
6. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice
   Potential Shocker: Steve Yeun, Burning or Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite or Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
   Snub Watch: Timothee Chalamet

Yes, I only included seven potential nominees. Realistically, that’s it. This is one of the thinnest categories I have ever seen, both in terms of quality of performance as well as number of potential nominees. That does mean it is ripe for a shocker, which is why I included three potential shockers. There are definitely a few other potential shockers, but this category is so weird this year, with just seven “contenders” and about as many potential shockers.

Anyway, the first four seem nearly locked (I feel like I am saying that way too much….) Jordan likely won’t get in, but I am predicting a bit of an upset. He is the absolute best part of Black Panther, and has somehow never been nominated despite being one of the biggest stars and best young actors working right now. Even people who may not love the film may want to recognize him. Elliott has been snubbed a few times, and I think he will miss here as well. Perhaps it is personal bias, but I never understood the hype around his performance- he is barely in it and his dialogue is unintelligible. I literally was unable to understand the majority of what he said, which took out all of the emotional weight of his scenes. I have seen many others echo this, so I think he misses. The big potential snub is Chalamet, who would likely be the only nomination for his film, but I still think he is very safe. It’s the least they could do after passing over his performance last year to reward a domestic abuser in makeup yelling a bunch.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. A Star Is Born
5. Leave No Trace
6. Death of Stalin
7. Black Panther
8. First Man
9. Crazy Rich Asians
10. Widows
    Potential Shocker: Annihilation
    Snub Watch: A Star Is Born

The screenplay categories are the two categories to watch this year. There are really only eight options this year (sorry Crazy and Widows), but they all have such good chances of getting in. The top two are locked, but the next three slots are open and there are six films fighting for them. Many are predicting A Star Is Born misses, but I think it makes it in, along with Leave No Trace. Death of Stalin is right on the edge, as writer/director Armondo Iannucci snuck in nine years ago with his previous political satire, In the Loop. Black Panther could get in, but I think the script is widely considered the film’s weakest element. Ditto First Man. A potential jaw dropper would be Alex Garland’s Annihilation, which has hit no precursors, but he did get in for Ex Machina three years ago.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Eighth Grade
5. Vice
6. First Reformed
7. A Quiet Place
   Potential Shocker: Sorry to Bother You
   Snub Watch: Roma

There are six films fighting for four slots (The Favourite is locked and loaded). Despite all of the controversies, might heart wants to say that Green Book misses out to make room for a script that is actually original (or, you know, at least good), but my brain knows it is getting in just to annoy me. Roma is an odd one. The film is critically beloved, but the script is so minimal, with most of the power coming from the direction and acting, so it could miss, but it has been such a juggernaut this year that it should be in.

The writer’s branch does love to throw a bone to small indies, so I am thinking that Eighth Grade gets in as a consolation prize. That leaves Vice vs First Reformed for the last slot, with A Quiet Place as the dark horse. Adam McKay won Adapted Screenplay three years ago for The Big Short, so I think he is in, even for a script that pales in comparison. This means Paul Schrader will continue to be a living legend that has never been nominated for an Oscar. If this happens, history will not look kindly on the fact that he missed out so that Green Book could get in. If the Academy goes crazy, Boots Riley’s absolutely insane Sorry to Bother You is the obvious choice. It is absolutely the most original screenplay of the year.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star Is Born
4. First Man
5. Black Panther
6. If Beale Street Could Talk
7. Cold War
   Potential Shocker: Hereditary
   Snub Watch: The Favourite

Roma is almost definitely winning this. The next three should be safe, unless they decide they really do not like the fish-eye shots of The Favourite. In a bit of an upset, I think Black Panther takes the last slot- DP Rachel Morrison is currently the only woman ever to be nominated here, following her nomination last year for Mudbound.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
9. A Star Is Born
   Potential Shocker: BlacKkKlansman
   Snub Watch: The Favourite

This is a tough one. Crazy Rich Asians should get in, but this category is not a fan of contemporary costumes. BoRap has momentum and could get in if it overperforms, but I think this category will play it safe and stick to the typical period outfits they love so much.

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. Vice
8. Widows
9. Green Book
10. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
    Potential Shocker: Eighth Grade
    Snub Watch: BlacKkKlansman

Typically, a film needs a nomination here to win Best Picture (the only exception of the past 38 years is Birdman, which was designed to look like one single take). So look to see what gets in here. Vice is a big threat, and it certainly has the most editing, but I think it will be passed over for something not actively screaming “look at all this editing!” There are rumblings of BoRap getting in here. Please no.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice
2. Border
3. Stan and Ollie
4. Mary, Queen of Scots
5. Black Panther
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Suspiria

There are seven films on the shortlist, and three slots available. Honestly, any combination is reasonable and acceptable. I think Vice is in for transforming Bale into Cheney. This branch loves obscure Scandinavian films, so since they liked Border enough to shortlist it, I think it is in. For the third slot, the smart money is on Black Panther, but this category is not afraid to mix things up (see: the previous favorite, The Favourite, missing the shortlist), so I’m predicting Stan and Ollie.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Crazy Rich Asians
6. A Star Is Born
7. Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Roma

I’m predicting Crazy Rich Asians sneaks in at the expense of some much bigger competition.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Annihilation
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Isle of Dogs
8. A Quiet Place
9. Vice
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
11. Crazy Rich Asians
12. The Death of Stalin
13. Ready Player One
14. Fantastic Beast: The Crimes of Grindelwald
15. Avengers: Infinity War

I included all fifteen films on the shortlist. They all have a reasonable chance, and would be deserving, except the uninspired Beasts score or they dull Avengers score. The top three are safe. I’m betting big on Annihilation making it based on the final twenty minutes of the film.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born- “Shallow”
2. Black Panther- “All the Stars”
3. Dumplin’- “Girl in the Movies
4. Mary Poppins Returns- “Trip a Little Light Fantastic”
5. RBG- “I’ll Fight”
6. Marry Poppins Returns- “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
7. Boy Erased- “Revelation”
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
   Potential Shocker: Sorry to Bother You– “OYAHYTT”

“Shallow” won this Oscar months ago, they just haven’t handed it out yet. “All the Stars” is safe as well. Dolly Parton has been campaigning hard, so her Dumplin’ track should be in. At least one Poppins song is in, probably “Light.” The other song could get in as well, but I think the RBG song takes the fifth slot. There is buzz around the Wreck-It Ralph song, but I think the big shock could be “OYAHYTT” getting in.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. Roma
5. Mission: Impossible- Fallout

Many are predicting A Star Is Born, but then again, many people don’t understand the difference between the sound categories. This one is about the actual sounds themselves, while the other category is about putting them together.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. A Quiet Place
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. Roma
7. Mary Poppins Returns

This is where the musicals go.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. First Man
5. Welcome to Marwen
6. Ready Player One
7. Mary Poppins Returns
8. Christoper Robin
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp
10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

This is an odd category. There are ten films on the shortlist, and seven have a chance. There is no major frontrunner this year. Black Panther fits the bill of “VFX-driven Best Picture contender” (like Life of Pi or Mad Max) except for the fact that the VFX are… only okay. Still, the film supposedly was a hit at the VFX bakeoff, so I think if gets in. If Solo misses here, it will be the first Star Wars film not nominated for a single Oscar. It had a strong reception at the VFX bakeoff so I think it is in. Same goes for Welcome to Marwen, although that could miss if people really hated the film. First Man should be in for its practical effects, but supposedly some people did not like it, and it could miss like Dunkirk. This is a tough category to predict.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Mirai
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet
   Potential Shocker: Ruben Brand, Collector
   Snub Watch: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

A change in voting rules means that this category will be more mainstream than usual, so expect Ralph to get in, and don’t be shocked if Mirai misses for The Grinch. Of course, critical favorite Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, could be a huge snub like The Lego Movie four years ago.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Free Solo
3. Three Identical Strangers
4. RBG
5. Minding the Gap
6. Shirkers
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
   Potential Shocker: Crime + Punishment
   Snub Watch: RBG

The top five have been very solid all year; it would be foolish to predict something else at this point. Still, I could see any but the top two being snubbed. This category is notorious for snubs. RBG looks particularly vulnerable, since it really pales in comparison to the others.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Burning
5. Capernaum
6. Birds of Passage
7. Never Look Away
8. The Guilty
9. Ayka
   Snub Watch: Burning

There are nine on the shortlist. The top five have been cited just about everywhere, although Capernaum is the most vulnerable. Still, never count out this category from doing something stupid, such as leaving out Burning.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Bao
2. Weekends
3. Bilby
4. Animal Behavior
5. Age of Sail
6. Lost and Found
7. Late Afternoon.

Ah, the short categories. They are nearly impossible to predict. Pixar’s Bao is an easy lock. Weekends has the best reviews. Bilby is too cute to resist. Otherwise, it’s just up to gut feelings and personal preferences.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Zion
2. Lifeboat
3. Period. End of Sentence.
4. Black Sheep
5. End Game

Good luck trying to predict this category. Hint: Zion is winning.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Caroline
2. Wale
3. Skin
4. Icare
5. Marguerite

I could pull names out of a hat and would probably have a better chance at being right.

 

Alright, that is it for my final predictions. If I am correct, the big contenders will have the following number of nominations (with the most reasonably possible in parenthesis):

1. Black Panther- 10 (14)
2. The Favourite- 10 (11)
3. A Star Is Born- 9 (12)
4. First Man- 9 (12)
5. Roma- 7 (11)
6. Green Book- 5 (7)
7. BlacKkKlansman- 5 (8)
8. Vice- 5 (9)
9. Mary Poppins Returns- 5 (9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk- 4 (6)
11. Bohemian Rhapsody- 3 (5)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me?- 3 (4)
13. A Quiet Place- 2 (6)
14. Crazy Rich Asians- 1 (6)
15. Eighth Grade- 1 (5)
16. Mary, Queen of Scots- 1 (5)
17. First Reformed- 1 (3)
18. Leave No Trace- 1 (3)

(Note: That is not the “minimum-maximum” range. Any could go above or beyond. That is just the number I am currenltly expecting, as well as how many it would get if it were to sneak in from the bubble).

It will certainly be an interesting morning with a lot to analyze. Or, it will end up going more or less exactly as expected. Here’s hoping that there are some major shocks, and some very welcome snubs. Tune in tomorrow at 8:20 a.m ET for the nominations.