Following the massive 2018, it’s time to take a look at what 2019 has in store. Yes, we did just start February. But January was so slow with only one major release (Glass) which performed on the low end of predictions, so we really have not missed much.
I am going to take a look at what I expect to be the highest grossing films of the year. I will include opening weekend, domestic total, and worldwide total in my predictions. They will be listed in descending order based on predicted domestic total. Obviously, predicting this far out is hard, so this is more for fun and to look back on at the end of the year. Predictions are based on talent involved, and promotional material released so far, release date, franchise performance, and gut feeling. Without further ado, here are my predictions.
The Lion King
Opening Weekend: $220 million
Domestic Total: $750 million
Worldwide Total: $2.1 billion
I’m going big on this. The original Lion King smashed records. The 2011 rerelease made nearly $100m in just a few weeks. The teaser broke records. The cast is insane. The director (Jon Favreau) is hot off the Jungle Book remake. 2017’s Beauty and the Beast made $504m domestically, and the original isn’t nearly as popular as The Lion King. This has tons of momentum and a lot going for it. I think it is going to smash records and top the year (although any of the top three could come out on top).
Star Wars Episode IX
Opening Weekend: $230 million
Domestic Total: $700 million
Worldwide Total: $1.4 billion
The “sequel trilogy” wraps up this December with Episode IX and it is sure to be a blockbuster. While VIII came in substantially lower than VII, both Star Wars trilogies have had similar trajectories where the first film is the biggest, the second takes a steep drop, and the third comes in between. I expect this to follow the same pattern and make around $700 million as we see the end of the Skywalker Saga.
Avengers: Endgame
Opening Weekend: $255 million
Domestic Total: $680 million
Worldwide Total: $1.9 billion
The Avengers franchise is also wrapping up, at least in its current form. Anticipation is extremely high. However, there isn’t much room to improve on the previous installment. Plus, the previous film used the whole “it’s the grand finale” marketing hook, so it may not be as effective a second time around when they have to say “okay this is the end we promise.” Plus, the previous film’s cliffhanger was robbed of some of its impact when sequels to Doctor Strange and Black Panther were announced. Not to mention the fact that a trailer for the new Spider-Man film came out, even though he is dead right now. Still, this will likely perform nearly identically to the previous film.
Frozen 2
Opening Weekend: $150m (five day)
Domestic Total: $450m
Worldwide Total: $1.2b
The first is one of the biggest success stories of the decade and a cultural phenomenon. This is a wildcard without even a poster, but there is no reason to suspect a poor performance. Frozen merchandise still sells like crazy, and the six year gap could be a sweet spot, attracting teenagers who were kids when the first came out, as well as bringing in a whole new market of kids under 10. Another song on the level of “Let It Go” can raise this substantially.
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu
Opening Weekend: $120m
Domestic Total: $420m
Worldwide Total: $1.1b
Pokemon is the biggest media franchise of all time. Any questions of how this will be pulled off in live action were answered by the phenomenal trailer. This is going to break out across all ages.
The Secret Life of Pets 2
Opening Weekend: $130m
Domestic Total: $410m
Worldwide Total: $950m
There’s no point doubting Illumination. All of their films are smashes, despite a lack of quality. The first film was a breakout hit that kids went crazy for. Now that it is an established property, the sequel will get a slight bump.
Toy Story 4
Opening Weekend: $125m
Domestic Total: $400m
Worldwide Total: $925m
This is tough. The franchise is legendary, but the last film was nine years ago and the perfect end to the franchise. But that was the same thing people were saying when Toy Story 3 was coming out…. I am thinking it will do slightly below its predecessor. This will likely be my worst prediction.
Spider-Man: Far From Home
Opening Weekend: $135m
Domestic Total: $365m
Worldwide Total: $950m
Well received previous film + breakout character from Infinity War + Jake Gyllenhaal + immediate follow up to End Game = decent bump from Homecoming.
Captain Marvel
Opening Weekend: $110m
Domestic Total: $335m
Worldwide Total: $840m
While it obviously could still break out, Wonder Woman beat Marvel to the punch having the first female-lead superhero film. But Marvel has been cranking out successes lately, and I expect this to perform similarly to Thor: Ragnarok.
IT: Chapter 2
Opening Weekend: $140m
Domestic Total: $310m
Worldwide Total: $650m
The first chapter was a monster success in 2017, placing 7th for the year. While the second half of Stephen King’s novel is not nearly as well regarded as the first, this is wisely bringing back the kids for extended flashback scenes, and has plenty of starpower for the adult cast. Strong reviews can make this pop up even more, but I am predicting a higher opening but lower total.
Jumanji 2
Opening Weekend: $80m
Domestic Total: $285m
Worldwide Total: $900m
There’s a 50/50 shot that this is even released this year (it hasn’t started filming yet). But, assuming it does, I’m expecting a dip from the prior film, which seemed like lightning in a bottle and, to me, is one of the most baffling performances I have ever seen. But it may see an increase internationally.
Shazam
Opening Weekend: $90m
Domestic Total: $280m
Worldwide Total: $830m
The trailer was funny and fun, reviews will likely be good, and Aquaman has put DC back on track.
Godzilla: King of Monsters
Opening Weekend: $100m
Domestic Total: $225m
Worldwide Total: $620m
2014’s Godzilla had a strong opening of $94m but completely collapsed, making just $200m. 2017’s Kong opened to $61m and legged it out to $168m. This should be a marginal improvement on those thanks to a strong trailer and cast, and the franchise will finally break out in 2020 when we get Godzilla vs Kong.
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
Opening Weekend: $85m
Domestic Total: $200m
Worldwide Total: $1.0b
Ignoring the unweildly title, it’s Fast and Furious, has The Rock and Statham, and the trailer suggests Idris Elba is playing some sort of superhero. Basically, it will be a smash overseas. Domestically, it will do slightly below The Fate of the Furious unless it has crazy reviews.
Gemini Man
Opening Weekend: $50m
Domestic Total: $190m
Worldwide Total: $400m
Nothing about this film has been shown, so this will probably be hilarious to look back on, but I think an original sci-fi film from Ang Lee starring Will Smith can breakout.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Opening Weekend: $65m
Domestic Total: $185m
Worldwide Total: $350m
Tarantino’s ninth film has his most impressive cast ever- Leonardo DiCaprio in his first role since The Revenant, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Dakota Fanning, Kurt Russell, and many, many others. While it will certainly be long and violent, with such an amazing cast (and I am assuming phenomenal reviews), this could become Tarantino’s biggest hit.
The Joker
Opening Weekend: $65m
Domestic Total: $175m
Worldwide Total: $400m
This may be the biggest wildcard of the year. From director Todd Phillips and producer Martin Scorcese and starring Joaquin Phoenix comes a (supposedly) R-Rated Joker movie not connected to the other DC films (as Jared Leto is supposedly still playing the Joker in those). This will be very dependent on reviews. But the Joker is one of the most iconic villains of all time and Phoenix one of the best actors working today, so it could be a surprise.
Aladdin
Opening Weekend: $60m
Domestic Total: $170m
Worldwide Total: $500m
Every still released for this looks cheap, and the teaser was underwhelming. We are yet to see what Will Smith’s Genie will look and sound like, but Guy Ritchie has been a bomb factory lately. With so many Disney releases, something’s gotta give, and Aladdin is no Lion King.
The Lego Movie 2
Opening Weekend: $55m
Domestic Total: $165m
Worldwide Total: $430m
It’s been five years since the original shocked the world by being really good, and the novelty has worn off. Expect a performance in line withe Lego Batman.
Men in Black: International
Opening Weekend: $55m
Domestic Total: $160m
Worldwide Total: $580m
Is this brand still strong? Or was it always more about Will Smith than the aliens? I guess we will find out.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Opening Weekend: $45m
Domestic Total: $160m
Worldwide Total: $450m
Despite strong reviews, the second film took a hard dip from the first, likely because the series has lots of content available on television. I expect a slight uptick for the final film, but still nowhere near what this franchise deserves.
Us
Opening Weekend: $65m
Domestic Total: $160m
Worldwide Total: $230m
Jordan Peele became a brand unto himself when he released Get Out, which is already a classic. His next film is highly anticipated and had a great trailer. While it will be tough to follow up Get Out, this should have a great opening and (assuming/hoping for phenomenal reviews) strong legs.
Ad Astra
Opening Weekend: $35m
Domestic Total: $140m
Worldwide Total: $340m
Star-studded original scifi, could break out. Early buzz has been good.
X-Men: Dark Phoenix
Opening Weekend: $50m
Domestic Total: $130m
Worldwide Total: $520m
This film has already been delayed twice, and nobody seems to care. With Disney taking over Fox soon, this is likely the last we will see of this lineup of X-Men in Fox’s convoluted, time-jumping franchise(s?).
Cats
Opening Weekend: $20m (five day)
Domestic Total: $125m
Worldwide Total: $330m
This is far away, but it has star power, Tom Hooper (who directed Les Miserables), a Christmas release, is based on one of the most successful plays ever, and musicals have been killing it lately.
Dumbo
Opening Weekend: $45m
Domestic Total: $120m
Worldwide Total: $410m
With three Disney remakes releasing this year, I can’t see them all being hits. The teaser was fine, but Tim Burton hasn’t had a hit since 2010, and this doesn’t seem to have his famous style.
Wonder Park
Opening Weekend: $30m
Domestic Total: $115m
Worldwide Total: $290m
Animated film with cute animals, could perform like Home.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Opening Weekend: $15m
Domestic Total: $115m
Worldwide Total: $220m
I’m predicting this to break out. Mr Rogers’s documentary was a huge hit, and the biopic stars Tom Hanks and is from director Marielle Heller, fresh off Can You Ever Forgive Me? This will be an Oscar contender and a hit.
Terminator 6
Opening Weekend: $35m
Domestic Total: $110m
Worldwide Total: $550m
The previous film was horrible received and only made $89m domestically, but it still made $440 worldwide. With James Cameron involved, this should be slightly better at a minimum.
John Wick 3
Opening Weekend: $40m
Domestic Total: $105m
Worldwide Total: $200m
This franchise has been a word of mouth hit, as the second more than doubled the original’s grosses across opening weekend, domestic, and worldwide. The third and final will be the biggest, albeit with a smaller jump.
Zombieland 2
Opening Weekend: $35m
Domestic Total: $100m
Worldwide Total: $260m
The cast is way bigger today than they were ten years ago, and the original certainly has a following. But this feels like a movie that the internet hypes up and it underwhelms.
Little Women
Opening Weekend: $15m
Domestic Total: $100m
Worldwide Total: $180m
Greta Gerwig follows up her beloved Lady Bird with the latest adaptation of one of the most famous novels ever written. The cast for this is insane, and sure to attract younger (Saoirse Ronan, Timothee Chalamet, Emma Watson) and older (Meryl Streep, Laura Dern, Bob Odenkirk) audiences. It could be the seaon’s big Oscar breakout.
Artmis Fowl
Opening Weekend: $30m
Domestic Total: $90m
Worldwide Total: $200m
This film is ten years late and Disney has been struggling with any film that is not Star Wars, Marvel, animated, or a remake.
X-Men: New Mutants
Opening Weekend: $30m
Domestic Total: $80m
Worldwide Total: $230m
This has also been delayed several times, originally slotted for an April 2018 release. It was delayed for an entire year to reshoot nearly the entire film, which is not a good sign. Don’t be surprised if this ends up being released directly to Hulu, or never released at all.
Happy Death Day 2U
Opening Weekend: $30m
Domestic Total: $75m
Worldwide Total: $150m
The first was surprisingly good and enjoyable. The sequel appears to be doubling down on the fun.
Charlie’s Angels
Opening Weekend: $25m
Domestic Total: $70m
Worldwide Total: $150m
This is pretty far away and all I have to go on is the cast, so this is pretty conservative.
Alita- Battle Angel
Opening Weekend: $15m
Domestic Total: $42m
Worldwide Total: $240m
I’m cheating a bit since reviews are out, but this will bomb, although that has been clear for months.
Hellboy
Opening Weekend: $18m
Domestic Total: $40m
Worldwide Total: $120m
This has bomb written all over it. It’s stuck between various other superhero films, and the trailer did it no favors.
Chaos Walking
Opening Weekend: $14m
Domestic Total: $40m
Worldwide Total: $100m
This is currently scheduled to release in under a month (March 1), yet there is no trailer. I’m assuming this will be pushed back. It has undergone extensive reshoots, which is never a good sign. Without much to go on, I’m thinking this will bomb.
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Alright, that’s it. I know there’s a ton more than I missed, but this is more for fun than anything serious, especially once we get past the first fifteen. Still, this will be fun to look back on at the end of the year.
Film Central 